Bank BNP Paribas report Summary

1- The UK economy is expected to see a dip in inflation below the 2% target, leading to a potential Bank Rate cut in June, with the rate reaching 4.25% by the end of 2024.


2- The Spring Budget introduced modest fiscal measures, including a reduction in Insurance Contributions and a suspension of the fuel duty rise, which could add 0.3% to real GDP annually over the next five years.


3- The UK economy has shown signs of a technical recession in the second half of 2023, but recent data suggests a potential short-lived downturn, with real GDP rising by 0.2% in January.


4- The UK commercial real estate market is cautious, awaiting interest rate cuts to improve liquidity, with the five-year swap rate falling but yields remaining high.


5- Sectors such as hotels and industrial & logistics are performing well, with strong rental growth and demand, indicating potential for recovery in the real estate market.